In what has grow to be a yearly custom forward of the Academy Awards, which air this Sunday, February 24th on ABC, GeekDad movie writers Tony Nunes and Rob Huddleston make their picks and predictions for this yr’s key Oscar races.
- 1 Greatest Tailored Screenplay and Greatest Unique Screenplay
- 2 Animated Function Movie
- 3 Directing
- 4 Actor in a Main Position
- 5 Actress in a Main Position
- 6 Actor in a Supporting Position
- 7 Actress in a Supporting Position
- 8 Greatest Image
Greatest Tailored Screenplay and Greatest Unique Screenplay
Tony’s Predictions — Greatest Tailored Screenplay: If Beale Road Might Speak / Greatest Unique Screenplay: First Reformed
As a lot as I’d selfishly like to see the Coen Brothers’ The Ballad of Buster Scruggs take residence all three of the awards it’s nominated for, together with Greatest Tailored Screenplay, I predict that Barry Jenkins tackle James Baldwin’s If Beale Road Might Speak will take residence the Oscar. Deservedly so.
For the Unique Screenplay class, I’m going out on a limb to foretell a win for Paul Schrader’s fiercely restrained First Reformed. The Taxi Driver author is due for an Oscar, and with a movie as tense and emotionally blooming as this, the win can be excess of a legacy prize.
Rob’s Predictions — Greatest Tailored Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman / Greatest Unique Screenplay: The Favorite
Whereas I personally wasn’t terribly impressed with BlacKkKlansman, and I don’t assume it’s going to have an awesome night time, I feel Tailored Screenplay goes to be the place the Academy decides to honor Spike Lee this yr.
Since they’re handing out the writing awards to the films they aren’t going to offer the large prize to, I feel The Favorite finally ends up right here with its comfort prize and the one main award it is going to win.
Animated Function Movie
Tony’s Prediction — Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
My intestine tells me that Spider-Verse will possible be the night time’s huge winner from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It encountered a uncommon viewers transcendence of non-superhero followers popping out for a comic book ebook movie—enticed by word-of-mouth from critics and audiences of all ages. Sadly, my prediction comes with the caveat that with Spider-Verse because the nights huge MCU winner, Black Panther will go residence with out the Greatest Image Oscar us geeks have been hoping for.
Rob’s Prediction — Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I’m unsure there’s a transparent favourite right here. The Academy has by no means acknowledged a stop-motion film on this class earlier than, and I don’t assume they’ll begin this yr. Japanese animation likewise hasn’t fared nicely, with Spirited Away being the one winner to date. In order that leaves the three extra mainstream films. The film I need to win is Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. However it may possibly’t be ignored that Pixar has gained 9 of the 17 awards ever introduced on this class. And non-Pixar Disney films have been on a roll lately, profitable four of the final 6 years. Nonetheless, I feel that Spider-Man is totally different and revolutionary sufficient, it’s going up towards two sequels, and a few voters may even see this as a solution to award a superhero movie with out having to offer Greatest Image to Black Panther.
Tony’s Prediction — Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Did you see Roma? Have you ever seen a extra cinematic, auteur-driven imaginative and prescient this previous yr? I didn’t, and that’s the reason Cuaron will and completely ought to take residence this Oscar.
Rob’s Prediction — Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
That is a simple name this yr, with Roma the one really stand-out directing nominee within the bunch.
Actor in a Main Position
Tony’s Prediction — Christian Bale for Vice
Of all of this yr’s Greatest Actor nominees, Bale’s tackle Dick Cheney was by far probably the most putting transformation. I feel he’ll win, however we should always all be trustworthy about who actually deserves the Greatest Actor award: Nicolas Cage for probably the most manic, uncaged efficiency of his profession (and that’s saying one thing) in Mandy.
Rob’s Prediction — Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
This isn’t an inventory of flicks I feel ought to win, however moderately, which of them I feel will win. Malek has been principally unstoppable thus far in different awards exhibits, and I see no cause why that may change on Sunday night time.
Actress in a Main Position
Tony’s Prediction — Woman Gaga for A Star Is Born
The speak is that Glenn Shut is a shoe-in for The Spouse, however I’m not consuming the Kool-Assist. I’ve a robust suspicion that Gaga will swoop in with an upset for A Star Is Born. Her win will undoubtedly be in comparison with Cher’s 1988 Greatest Actress win for Moonstruck. It’s time. Give it some thought; A Star Is Born has been made 4 occasions, with Oscar nominations for Janet Gaynor within the 1937 unique and Judy Garland within the 1954 remake. Each misplaced. Barbara Streisand wasn’t nominated for her absorb 1976. Bonus enjoyable reality: Each the 1937 and 1954 movies have been set on the earth of Hollywood (versus the music enterprise just like the 1976 and 2018 variations) with each fictional stars profitable an Academy Award within the movie, however alas, not in actuality.
Rob’s Prediction — Glenn Shut for The Spouse
I’m at an obstacle right here as I haven’t but seen The Spouse, however once more, I don’t have to see the films to make these predictions. (And typically, seeing the films is usually a little bit of a distraction anyway.) Within the final ten years, the winner of the SAG award for Greatest Actress has additionally gained the Oscar eight occasions, and a type of two outliers was as a result of Kate Winslet, who gained the Oscar, was nominated within the Supporting Actress class at SAG… which she gained. So despite the fact that the Academy in any other case ignored The Spouse this yr, I don’t see any cause why all of these actors who voted for her with the Guild would change their votes when casting their Academy ballots.
Actor in a Supporting Position
Tony’s Prediction — Mahershala Ali for Inexperienced Guide
Ali gained the award in 2017 for Moonlight, and I predict he’ll win once more for Inexperienced E-book. Mahershala Ali is likely one of the greatest actors working as we speak, and I see much more awards in his future. Subsequent up, the Emmy for his insanely nice run on the third season of HBO’s True Detective.
Rob’s Prediction — Mahershala Ali for Inexperienced Ebook
Once more, going with the SAG winner right here, though I additionally occur to assume that not solely is Ali very deserving of the award, however that additionally this shall be an early indicator of the large night time Inexperienced Ebook goes to have.
Actress in a Supporting Position
Tony’s Prediction — Regina King for If Beale Road Might Speak
I’ve zero doubts that King will take house this award. She gained the Golden Globe and a variety of critics awards, however my actual confidence in her odds comes from the facility of the efficiency itself.
Rob’s Prediction — Regina King for If Beale Road Might Speak
Right here’s the place the “simply go together with the SAG vote” falls flat, because the Guild’s winner, Emily Blunt, wasn’t even nominated on this class for her efficiency in A Quiet Place. Yikes. Typical knowledge may assume that Blunt and Weisz would cut up the vote right here, although Weisz did edge out her co-star on the BAFTA awards. However in the long run, I feel it’ll be King right here, not solely as a result of she has already gained a number of different awards this yr, but in addition as a result of she actually did ship a stand-out efficiency.
Tony’s Prediction — Roma
By no means in Academy Awards historical past has a movie gained each the Greatest Overseas Language Movie and Greatest Image awards. There have been nominees for each, together with Costa-Gavras’ Z, which gained Greatest Overseas Language Movie and was nominated and misplaced for Greatest Image in 1969. That very same state of affairs performed out for Roberto Benigni’s Life is Lovely in 1998, Ang Lee’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in 2000, and Michael Haneke’s Amour in 2012. And there’s even the odd case of Jan Troell’s The Emigrants which was nominated for Greatest Overseas Movie in 1971 and Greatest Image in 1972, dropping each. In all, there have been 11 overseas language movies nominated for Greatest Image and all of them misplaced. 2019 is the yr that may change. Roma would be the first movie to take house each the Overseas Language and Greatest Image awards. It might be odd for a movie to win Greatest Image and lose the Overseas Language class, until Chilly Warfare by some means edges Roma out.
On the finish of the night time, Cuaron and his staff would be the massive winners. And so will Netflix, which has campaigned closely for an Oscar win. What a Netflix Greatest Image means for the way forward for movie is one other story, and one which will probably be a lot debated, passionately on two sides, for months and years to return. My take is that nice cinema will solely be made if individuals and corporations proceed to spend money on storytellers and their craft. Movie show viewing is all the time the most effective expertise, and if Netflix can toe the road between investing in story whereas preserving and even increasing alternatives for artwork home cinematic exhibition like they did with Roma, I’m all for it.
Rob’s Prediction – Inexperienced E-book
I don’t assume there are too many individuals taking note of the Oscars who don’t assume this can be a two-way race between Roma and Inexperienced Guide. And wow is it onerous to name. If it wins, Inexperienced Guide will turn out to be solely the fifth film in Oscar historical past to win Greatest Image with no Director nomination. The final was comparatively current—2012’s Argo—however earlier than that it’s a must to return to 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy… a film that has gotten multiple comparability to Inexperienced Ebook.
However, Roma would grow to be the primary non-English film ever to win.
Each films have appearing nominations, which is nearly all the time a requirement to win (89% of all Greatest Image winners have had at the least one appearing nomination), and each have been nominated for his or her screenplays, which once more is principally required (93% of winners have been nominated for writing). 82% of previous winners have had a nomination for Movie Modifying, which Inexperienced Ebook received however Roma didn’t.
The opposite awards aren’t a lot assist right here, both. Of the 5 different awards which are decent-ish predictors of Oscar glory, Roma has gained two (Director’s Guild and BAFTA), and Inexperienced Guide has gained two (Producer’s Guild and the Golden Globe.) The SAG went with Black Panther, which I do know most of our readers in all probability need to win as properly. Nevertheless, of these 4, the Director’s Guild is by far probably the most predictive, agreeing with the Oscars 72% of the time since 1981. The PGA is the subsequent highest at solely 58%.
Neither movie is totally free from controversy, both. Inexperienced Ebook has been criticized by the household of Don Shirley (the character performed by Ali) and had dangerous press about its director and co-writer. However Roma is seen by lots of people as solely sort-of a “actual” film, seeing because it was produced by Netflix and solely barely launched in theaters, with all three of the large chains (AMC, Regal, and Cinemark) refusing to display it in any respect. I ended up driving all the best way to San Francisco to discover a theater that was enjoying it since I didn’t need to watch it at house. A win for the film could be seen as a press release by Hollywood that the period of theaters is over, one thing numerous people within the business won’t be able to do.
So, with all the predictive instruments being a wash, I’m going to go together with the idea that as a result of voters have one other massive class during which to acknowledge Roma, and the straightforward proven fact that I simply occurred to assume it’s the higher film, and stick to Inexperienced E-book.
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